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☆ The stock market's gains are almost entirely concentrated in the 'Magnificent 7' - and that could mean a crash is coming
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Have you heard of the Magnificent Seven? This handful of Big Tech stocks have accounted for nearly all the market's gains in 2023. The names that make up the so-called Magnificent Seven are now the seven biggest US-listed stocks. Are you buying or selling the Magnificent Seven? Strategists from Goldman Sachs made the case for names they think will be low in volatility and high in returns.

Persons: I'm Phil Rosen, It's, you'll, let's, Tesla, there's, Minerva, Kathleen Brooks, John Hussman, Hussman, ANGELA WEISS, Goldman Sachs, Russell, Xi Jinping, Everyone's, Cleo Capital's Sarah Kunst, Phil Rosen, Max Adams, Hallam Bullock Organizations: Twitter, LinkedIn, Lionsgate, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Microsoft, Big Tech, Apple, Hussman Investment Trust, Getty, PLC, Costco Locations: New York, London

☆ Americans aren't spending like they used to
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

You can also download the app to get notifications about our biggest markets stories. Spending has remained elevated even through the Fed's 10 straight rate hikes, but warning signs of a change have started to surface. That's going to further take the wind out of Americans' brisk spending over the last few years. From David Rosenberg to Rob Arnott, experts are sharing what the disruptive technology can mean for the economy, jobs, and stock market. The biggest companies and banks can't agree on where the stock market is heading next.

Persons: I'm Phil Rosen, You'll, let's, Derek Davis, Patek Pilippe, Audemars, Jerome Powell, Brian Moynihan, Morgan Stanley, Andy Ryan, Pablo Hernández de Cos, David Rosenberg, Rob Arnott, Stocks, Russell, Goldman Sachs, Phil Rosen, Max Adams, Hallam Bullock Organizations: Big Apple, Portland Portland Press, Getty, Rolex, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Bank of Spain, Fed, Wall Street, Royal, Nvidia, Tesla, Morningstar Locations: Madrid, Phoenix, Miami, Royal Caribbean, New York, London

☆ Ray Dalio just named which major economy presents the biggest investment opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

This morning we have stories on Ray Dalio, the topsy-turvy housing market, troubled commercial real estate, and more. Ray Dalio said India presents the next big investment opportunity. Troubled assets in the sector just reached $64 billion, climbing 10% in the first quarter of the year. The housing market suggests that the US economy dodged the recession bullet. According to Carson Group, recent strength in housing starts and building permits indicates that construction groups are confident about demand.

Persons: I'm Phil Rosen, Ray Dalio, topsy, Buckle, Eoin Noonan, it's, There's, Warren Buffett, Melinda Gates, Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Phil Rosen, Jason Ma, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: Getty, Berkshire Hathaway, Melinda Gates Foundation, Carson Group, Manheim, Homeowners, Bank of America Locations: India, China, Russia, Ukraine, New York, Los Angeles, London

☆ Jerome Powell says the Fed is still 'very far' on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House, central bank nominees are talking to the Senate, and the Washington Wizards traded away their star hooper. Powell spoke before the House Financial Services Committee yesterday following 10 consecutive interest rate hikes and one rate "skip" that the Fed chief made sure to clarify wasn't a "pause." "Given how far we've come, it may make sense to move rates higher but to do so at a more moderate pace," Powell said Wednesday. So far, the economy has been more resilient than expected, even as the fed funds rate hovers in the 5% to 5.25% range. US stock futures fall early Thursday, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said more rate hikes are likely ahead.

Persons: I'm Phil Rosen, Jerome Powell, hooper, Anna Moneymaker, Powell, that's, Patrick McHenry, Tesla, Goldman Sachs, there's, Julia La Roche, Ed Yardeni, isn't, BofA's Savita Subramanian, Apple isn't, Read, Phil Rosen, Jason Ma, Hallam Bullock, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: Senate, Washington Wizards, Financial Services, Fed, Nvidia, Apple, Business, Federal, Accenture, Volex, Bank of America, . Locations: New York, Los Angeles, London

☆ Morgan Stanley expects the stock market to plunge. Others aren't so sure.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

An American flag hangs behind traders working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 11, 2019 in New York City. Morgan Stanley, for example, has adopted a downbeat view for the months ahead. Falling prices, Morgan Stanley explained, can cut into revenue growth and weigh on earnings. "This should begin to hit asset prices by the end of this month and carry into the fall," Morgan Stanley strategists said. To Stockton, the S&P 500 could soon trade as high as 4,510, or about 3% higher than current levels.

Persons: I'm Phil Rosen, Jerome Powell, Drew Angerer, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Katie Stockton, Stockton, Morgan Stanley's bearishness, Rick Bowmer, Tom Lee, Phil Rosen, Jason Ma, Hallam Bullock Organizations: Capitol, Financial Services, Committee, Fed, New York Stock Exchange, NYSE, Advance, Bank of England, Patterson Companies, Winnebago Industries, Bloomberg, Manheim Locations: American, New York City, Stockton, Salt Lake City, London, China, Europe, New York, Los Angeles

☆ Housing market inventory keeps declining and that's bad news for homebuyers
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

We're revisiting housing inventory today because it's one of the key sticking points that's keeping home prices elevated and buyers wary. Get this: The housing market today has 39% fewer homes for sale than before the pandemic. Mortgage rates are currently about double what they were in 2021, when ultra-low rates fueled a home-buying boom. That could help influence mortgage rates to go even higher this year. People who are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for mortgage rates to decline, should know that's unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future."

Persons: I'm Phil Rosen, Jerome Powell, Joe Raedle, There's, Powell, Redfin's Chen Zhao, Edward Seiler, Tweet, JIM WATSON, Morgan Stanley, Steve Eisman, Larry Summers, Richard Branson's, Phil Rosen, Max Adams, Hallam Bullock Organizations: realtors, Mortgage Bankers Association, US, Getty, Fed, FedEx, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Treasury, Virgin Galactic Locations: homebuilding, New York, London

☆ There's one big reason why housing inventory is so tight right now
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A lot of moving parts today — we've got stories on Tesla, Microsoft, housing and more. Pretty much everyone with a mortgage is paying a lower rate than what's being offered today. That's compared to about 6.7% you can expect to pay on a new 30-year home loan today. Elon Musk has been shirking rent payments for Twitter, and that's creating problems for Goldman Sachs. She bought a home in Detroit for $6,300 — then figured out how to scale to 35 units and achieve financial freedom.

Persons: I'm Phil Rosen, we've, Let's, Elon Musk, Goldman Sachs, Musk, they're, Javier Milei, Jeff Bezos, Phil Rosen, Max Adams Organizations: Microsoft, Twitter, Columbia Property, Miami University, Elon Locations: Redfin, Detroit, Russia's, Argentina, New York

☆ Home buyers are facing the least affordable market on record
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-03 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Joe Raedle / Getty ImagesEdward Seiler is the associate vice president for housing economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association. Phil Rosen: The MBA's Purchase Applications Payment Index just hit a new high in April. For new home buyers, this is the worst situation since the end of the Great Recession. Current homeowners that were lucky enough to get a 2.75% interest rate in 2022 are in a great position, but for new buyers looking to buy a first home, or those looking to move to another home, it's a very daunting proposition. In his view, monthly payments for first-time buyers are up roughly one-third compared to last year — and that's going to keep buyers on the sidelines and weigh on demand.

Persons: I'm Phil Rosen —, Joe Raedle, Edward Seiler, Phil Rosen, Jen, Hsun Huang, Huang, Kim Kulish, Gregg Fisher, he's, Jensen Huang, It's, There's, Evercore's Mark Mahaney, Meta, shouldn't, David Rosenberg, who's, Larry Pitkowsky, Max Adams Organizations: Mortgage, Association, Twitter, Nvidia Corp, GPU Technology, Nvidia, Treasury Department, Fed, Tech Locations: San Jose , California, New York

☆ China's economy isn't rebounding as fast as anyone expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

While I personally won't be flying internationally anytime soon, we're diving into China's lethargic economy for today's newsletter. The much-anticipated economic rebound hasn't quite materialized for China in the way many had expected. The sluggish recovery has embedded itself in nearly every corner of the world's second-largest economy, even in some of the most obscure commodities markets. The CSI 300 index has slipped over recent weeks, and luxury brands reliant on China's large consumer base have tumbled. What's your outlook on China's economy for the rest of 2023?

Persons: I'm Phil Rosen, Jamie Dimon, Tesla, China Tuul, Bruno Morandi, Rockefeller International's Ruchir Sharma, Nicholas Lardy, Lardy, Filip De Mott, Tweet, Sheldon Cooper, Nordstrom, Goldman Sachs, there's, that's, Phil Rosen, Jason Ma, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: JPMorgan, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Getty, World Gold, Fed, Nvidia, Microsoft, Saudi Aramco Locations: Elon, China, Washington, Shanghai, Shenzhen, . Utah , Colorado, Scottsdale, Saudi, New York, Los Angeles, London

☆ A debt-ceiling deal may be close but the crisis likely isn't solved for good. Here's what would happen if the US actually defaulted on its debt.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

So the Treasury market remains intact in this scenario? JL: The broader US economy will suffer, the stock market will suffer, there will be higher unemployment. So just because the Treasury market ends up doing fine does not mean good news for the US economy. If you think the stock market isn't signaling there's a recession looming, David Rosenberg says otherwise. The AI hype gripping the stock market will resemble a mini dot-com bubble, according to UBS's Art Cashin.

☆ A bright spot in the economy is at risk as 30 million Americans face student loan payments for the first time since the pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

More than 43 million Americans together owe $1.6 trillion in student loans. That additional load could weigh on consumer spending, and eventually increase delinquencies on other payments like credit cards and personal loans, strategists said. "We view the resumption of student loan debt payments as an incremental headwind for borrowers and consumer finance companies," BofA said. This, in other words, means the odds of the hotly-anticipated recession are about to go up as consumers divert cash back to student loan payments. Do you have student loans?

☆ Timing the market isn't easy during a debt-ceiling showdown. Investors should stick to this strategy instead.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesMark Hamrick is senior economic analyst for Bankrate. Phil Rosen: How should investors be positioning themselves as the debt-ceiling fiasco drags on, and a potential default nears? If making a play around the debt ceiling is a no-go in your view, what should investors opt for instead? Homeowners are "quiet quitting" as low inventory and high mortgage rates keep a key market participant sidelined. That has a dual impact: each owner that postpones looking for a new house also marks one less seller on the market.

☆ The $31 trillion debt-ceiling fiasco could punish markets and it's complicating an already complex economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

In any case, one outcome that many hold with a high degree of certainty is that financial markets are going to feel pain if the "x-date" bell tolls. This $31 trillion debt ceiling argument "comes at the worst possible time," according to Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. "Many past instances of debt limit standoffs have been resolved without significant market fallout," the strategists wrote in a recent note. That's according to LPL chief global strategist Quincy Krosby — she says it boils down to these three reasons. With recession risks climbing, Bank of America analysts slashed their 2023 outlook for oil prices.

☆ Are we in a recession? Elon Musk says the pile of failed banks proves it.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

As for today, let's see what Elon Musk and Larry Summers have to say about the state of the economy. In any case, ex-Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said recession odds for the next year are now sitting at 70%. These six factors suggest the stock market bottomed last October. Morgan Stanley's top equity strategist Mike Wilson thinks investors are banking too hard on a potential Fed rate cut this year. That discrepancy could set the stock market up for a sell-off, in his view.

☆ Russia’s battered wartime economy is still chugging along as it taps its wealth fund, raises taxes, and ramps up imports
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Shares of First Republic dropped more than 40% in pre-market trading today, while JPMorgan stock ticked 2.9% higher. Let's check in on Russia's wartime economy. To the surprise of many forecasters, Russia's economy has held up better than expected as it carries on into the second year of its war on Ukraine. And leaked documents, first reported by the Washington Post, suggest that Russia can fund its war for at least another year. Specifically, US intelligence says Moscow can rely on its sovereign wealth fund to help pay for its war efforts, as well as higher corporate taxes and ramped-up imports.

☆ De-dollarization and global reserves dominance, explained by a top currency economist and the inventor of the 'dollar smile' theory
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Stephen Jen, CEO of Eurizon SLJ Eurizon SLJStephen Jen is a leading economist, the cofounder and CEO of Eurizon SLJ, and inventor of the "dollar smile" theory. Phil Rosen: You pointed out recently that the dollar saw a steep erosion in 2022 as a global reserve currency. More likely, we will evolve from a unipolar reserve currency world to a multi-polar world. Here's what he said on a potential "tripolar" reserve currency setup if the dollar loses dominance. And here are the top stories from markets this week:Lauren Simmons, a trader at the New York Stock Exchange.

☆ Markets are ignoring recession signals because a downturn might actually ease a handful of problems facing stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Today we're diving into how a recession could affect the stock market — and why it may not be all bad in the eyes of investors. Traders gather on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, March 18, 2016. Markets so far this year haven't acted like they're too concerned about a recession, and that's no accident, according to DataTrek Research. : Sticky, high prices have weighed on stocks, but a slowdown would alleviate this. Falling productivity in the labor market: A recession could stop companies from hoarding workers, which could improve profit margins.

☆ Russia is landing new buyers for its sanctioned diesel all over the world and Brazil's taking advantage of the steep discounts.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Today we're talking energy — and I'm sharing a conversation with a leading expert on Russian diesel flows. Phil Rosen: You shared some data on how Brazil is seeing a dramatic uptick in Russian diesel imports, and a decrease in diesel imports from other sources, including the US. It really does appear that Russian diesel is muscling in on US market share in Brazil. How does this data on Brazil's diesel imports fit into the broader picture with China and India? Russian diesel is displacing traditional suppliers to these countries, while trade flows are changing to backfill the loss of Russian diesel into Europe.

☆ Wall Street warns the banking turmoil is coming for the commercial real estate sector
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

JPMorgan Asset Management's Jonathan Liang said Wednesday on Bloomberg that smaller banks now face an increased risk of credit losses because of their heightened exposure to the commercial real estate debt. And Goldman Sachs' global head of real estate client solutions, Jeffery Fine, recently said the commercial real estate market is in the middle of a "perfect storm" of higher rates, tight credit, and fast-maturing debt. The Goldman strategist said securing commercial real estate loans now is "almost impossible" since financing has just about shut down. What's your outlook for the commercial real estate sector in the next 6 months? This real estate investor commands a 311-unit portfolio.

☆ The US dollar's outlook is complicated. Here's what to know about the currency's standing on the world stage.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The dollar's position as a top reserve currency, however, may be somewhat less certain. They pointed to Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a catalyst for the currency's drop-off as a reserve currency. "We believe the erosion of the dollar's reserve currency status has accelerated in recent years at an alarming pace," Eurizon said. Here's the takeaway forecasters seem to agree on: The dollar's losing some ground as a global reserve currency, but none at all as far as international trade. What's your outlook for the dollar's role on the world stage in 2023 and beyond?

☆ How the Fed is reshaping the labor market and why the nature of work is shifting, according to LinkedIn’s principal economist
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Today's newsletter may not include a job offer, but it will give you a better grasp of what to look for in this still-hot labor market. I'm excited to share this week's conversation with one of the leading experts on jobs and hiring trends. How is that showing up in the labor market? What about the role of AI in the labor market? What do you think of Berger's insights on the labor market?

☆ Russia's war economy isn't as resilient as reports would have you believe
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

That brings us to today's main story — economists say the official data coming out of Russia isn't painting an accurate picture of Putin's wartime economy. "These are the things that businesses deliver and consumers purchase in an economy, and they have been absorbing the impact. Our tracker shows a contraction of the Russian economy ahead of the official figures release precisely because we use high-frequency indicators from the private economy." Vehicle sales, imports, credit growth, home prices, and other measures all point to a much less robust regime since Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine began. These four charts tell the story of how war has reshaped Russia over the last year.

☆ The housing market's fluctuations of the last year have left the best forecasters torn on what home prices will do in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

That said, today's newsletter focuses on the housing market — and why economists can't seem to agree on what it's going to do next. Some of the top real-estate forecasters in the world expect home prices to drop in 2023. Zillow forecasts home prices to climb 0.5% this year, and CoreLogic predicts a year-over-year increase of 3.7% by February 2024. Last month's financial turmoil that Silicon Valley Bank kicked off has led many analysts to anticipate a cut or pause in rate hikes, which could lead to fluctuations in housing demand and affordability. Prices in New York rose nearly 2% Wednesday as fears of a global supply shock intensified.

☆ The resilient job market is finally showing signs of cooling off
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The job market is clearly starting to slow down. Mohamed El-Erian said March's jobs report was a win-win for both the stock market and the Fed. "We are making this transition where the stock market was obsessed with interest-rate risk to one that is concerned about credit risk." What's your take on the latest job data? In other news:Traders works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 5, 2020.

☆ Robinhood traders are getting smarter with their money. The platform's head of investment strategy explained why.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Steph Guild, Robinhood's head of investment strategy. RobinhoodSteph Guild is the head of investment strategy at Robinhood. Phil Rosen: How have retail investors on Robinhood changed their investing habits now compared to 2022? As the economy faces more risks like a recession and a potential credit crunch, do you think retail investors will change their strategy? What do you think of Guild's insights on retail investors?

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